In the final hours leading up to the provincial election, all indications point to a race that is still very much up in the air between the New Democratic Party (NDP) and the Progressive Conservatives (PC), particularly in rural areas.
In late September, polls released by Angus Reid Institute and Probe Research demonstrated a stronger than expected lead for the NDP. Those polls indicated NDP support running as high as 49 percent, province-wide, and an even higher advantage in Winnipeg.
Historically in Manitoba, winning more that 44 percent of the popular vote is enough to ensure a victory.
The same polls indicate a low confidence in the Manitoba Liberals this year, with only nine percent of voters likely to cast their ballots in that direction.
All of that could change, though, when polls close tomorrow night. Voter turnout this year, based on early voting numbers, looks to be very high, which could tip the scales.
As of September 29, more than 150,000 voters had already cast their ballots. This can be compared to the 113,000 voters who exercised their right to vote early in 2019.
In this year’s election, Manitoba is believed to have approximately a dozen swing ridings where anything could happen on election day.
The riding of Springfield-Ritchot was created after a boundary shift took place just prior to the 2019 vote. The riding covers areas to Winnipeg’s south and east and includes the communities of Oakbank, Dugald, Melrose, Niverville, St. Adolphe, Ste. Agathe, Île-des-Chênes, Grande Pointe, and Howden.
In 2019, Ron Schuler won the riding with just better than 59 percent of the vote. NDP’s Sam Okoi came in a distant second with just 20 percent. Approximately 60 percent of the region’s nearly 16,000 eligible voters took the time to cast a ballot that year.
One week ago, The Citizen reached out to voters in the Niverville and Ritchot to gain some indication of people’s interest in voting this year. Of 90 Niverville-based respondents, 87 percent indicated their intention to hit the polls.
The remainder of respondents said they were torn between the belief that their vote wouldn’t matter anyway and a dissatisfaction with the candidates on offer.
In Ritchot, 79 respondents participated in the unofficial poll, 81 percent of whom intend to cast a vote. The split in participants who intend to abstain from voting is similar to that of Niverville.
The October 3 election polls will be open between 8:00 a.m. and 8:00 p.m. Niverville voters will find their polling station at the Niverville Heritage Centre. Île-des-Chênes residents should head to the TC Energy Centre, and Howden voters will find their poll at the Howden Community Centre. Voting stations will also be located at the École St. Adolphe School and the Ste. Agathe Cultural and Community Centre for those communities respectively.
