The trade deadline is less than a week away and trade rumors have been swirling for weeks involving some big-name players. This is the time of the year when teams typically overpay for assets as they prepare for a long playoff run.
The Jets should not be one of those teams making a significant trade at the deadline.
There’s a strong possibility that the Jets will miss the playoffs for the first time since the 2016–2017 season, and management needs to realize that a trade won’t significantly increase their chances of qualifying for the playoffs, or their chances of hoisting the Stanley Cup this spring.
The Winnipeg Jets currently have 65 points with only 22 games remaining in the regular season. This means they need to go on a remarkable run and win nearly 70 percent of their remaining games in order to qualify for the post-season, assuming they only need 95 points at the end of the regular season.
This would be a tough task for any NHL team, but especially for this season’s inconsistent Jets.
In the final 22 games, the Jets will play four games against teams that are below them in the standings: the Kings, the Senators, and the Sabres (twice). The Jets should win at least three out of these four games. They would be classified as must-win games.
Three of their remaining games are against teams that rank in the top five in the NHL: the Capitals (twice) and the Stars. These games will be tough, but since it’s extremely difficult to beat a team in the NHL twice in back-to-back games, the Jets should win at least one of these.
The remaining 15 games are against mid-tier teams: the Flyers, Oilers (twice), the Golden Knights (twice), the Coyotes (twice), the Flames (twice), the Canucks, the Panthers, the Wild, the Predators and the Avalanche (twice). Assuming the Jets only win 60 percent of these games, they will win nine of these 15 games.
Reasonably, I believe the Jets will finish the regular season with 86 points, which will rank ninth in the conference—and they will narrowly miss the playoffs. In order to reach the 95-point threshold, the Jets will need to win all four of the games against teams below them in the standings and still need to win 14 of their remaining eighteen games.
The Jets are only a couple of players away from regaining their spot near the top of the standings and shouldn’t be buyers or sellers at the trade deadline. They need to stand pat and add a couple of defenders during the offseason to set them up for success next season.
