While it’s not unusual for Mother Nature to throw a curve ball or two before spring slides into home base, an April blizzard is rarely a win for winter-weary Manitobans. This is, after all, the time of year when residents in the Red River Valley carefully watch the rising waters and make predictions.
Making things all the more interesting is the promise of above-freezing temperatures, in the double digits, which are expected to roll in as this latest blizzard rolls out.
So will there be a flood this spring? Representatives from Ritchot and Niverville say that whatever happens, they are prepped and ready for the melting to begin.
Town of Niverville
“We’ve done all of our preparation work,” says Eric King, CAO of Niverville. “There’s pros and cons to a late melt.”
The pro, he says, is that it provides crews with plenty of time to open up ditches, thaw the culverts, and check the drains for obstructions well before the heaps of snow turn to liquid.
The cons of spring’s late arrival, of course, are the delays it puts on outdoor sporting activities and spring seeding for farmers.
Residents of Niverville are asked to phone the town’s emergency response line in the coming weeks if impediments to water flow are detected on town property.
RM of Ritchot
Mike Dumaine is the manager of the Ritchot’s Public Works department. His crews and excavation equipment have been hard at work for a while now, clearing ditches and drains throughout the municipality.
But he says that activities will likely ramp up after the temperatures spike in the coming week or so.
“They’ve been keeping up, but come probably Sunday, where the temperatures at nighttime will stay above freezing, that’s where our crews will get a little busier just de-icing the culverts and land drainage systems so that the water can flow freely,” says Dumaine.
As for this latest dump of snow, Dumaine isn’t too concerned. The drains are open and, from here, it’s just a matter of maintenance to keep them open.
Spring flooding, on the other hand, is another story altogether for at least two communities within Ritchot’s boundaries. At this stage, Dumaine says, it’s just a waiting game to see what conditions will be like south of the border.
“We can’t control it,” Dumaine says. “We can only control [how we respond]. It’s just a matter of making sure our residents are protected. And if there’s flood predictions, our emergency coordinator takes over.”
According to Dumaine, hundreds of thousands of sandbags are already in storage at the public works yard. It’s just a matter of ordering some sand when and if it’s needed.
Manitoba Flood Predictions for 2023
The province’s Hydrologic Forecast Centre released its first flood forecast for 2023 in late February. Based on snowfall at that time, moderate water levels were predicted for both the Assiniboine and Red Rivers.
“Manitoba Transportation and Infrastructure reports low to moderate risk of significant spring flooding in most southern Manitoba basins,” the report states. “Water levels are expected to remain below dikes and community or individual flood protection levels… The risk of flooding could change depending on weather conditions between now and the spring melt.”1
With all the additional snow blown in by a Colorado low this April, however, the anticipation is that the risk of a flood will rise accordingly.
Amanda Lee is a North Dakota-based hydrologist with the U.S. National Weather Service. Even prior to the April blizzard, she was predicting Red River flood levels on the American side of the border as moderate to major.
As of Tuesday, April 4, reports indicated an additional ten inches of snow had fallen on Grand Forks.
“Up here in the Grand Forks and Oslo (Minnesota) areas, like Grand Forks and northward, breaching major flood stages is looking to be nearly a guarantee after this precipitation,” Lee reported to The Grand Forks Herald.2
Of course, there are other factors beyond snowfall that could determine the height of this year’s river levels.
Drought conditions experienced last fall mean the soil was mostly dry, making it more likely to absorb excess water. But when below-normal spring temperatures run headlong into significantly higher temperatures, the chance of severe flooding increases exponentially.
“These highs above freezing and lows below freezing will help us start melting slowly, which will be nice,” Lee said. “The kicker is going to be what happens the rest of the month precipitation-wise.”
Ritchot residents living within flood-prone areas are encouraged to watch for regular flood updates on the RM website this spring.
